In 2025, the United Kingdom is set to experience substantial reforms to its immigration framework, as outlined in the Immigration White Paper titled ‘Restoring Control over the Immigration System’. Among the proposed measures, the introduction of the Temporary Shortage List (TSL) represents a pivotal development. The TSL is intended to provide targeted access to the UK labour market for occupations identified as facing acute shortages. On 9 October 2025, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) released its Stage 1 Report, offering critical insights into the structure, objectives, and anticipated implementation of the TSL.
Purpose and Policy Context of the Temporary Shortage List
The Temporary Shortage List was introduced within the context of rising economic migration, particularly in mid-skilled roles, alongside a growing domestic skills gap. According to the Home Office Immigration White Paper of May 2025, net migration had reached a record high, prompting the government to recalibrate work visa rules. One of the key measures was to raise the skills threshold for the Skilled Worker visa to RQF Level 6 (degree equivalent), restricting lower and mid-skilled occupations from this route.
The Temporary Shortage List serves as a focused response to this policy challenge, allowing temporary access to the immigration system for occupations deemed critical to the Industrial Strategy or national infrastructure. Its primary aims include:
- Reducing net migration without undermining workforce supply in critical sectors.
- Supporting the 10-year UK Industrial Strategy by ensuring the availability of essential skills.
- Encouraging investment in domestic training and workforce development to reduce reliance on overseas labour.
By providing time-limited access to the UK labour market, the TSL incentivises employers to strengthen domestic recruitment and skills development strategies.
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Authorities and Bodies Involved in the TSL Process
The Temporary Shortage List (TSL) is overseen and informed by several key authorities and regulatory bodies, ensuring that decisions are evidence-based and aligned with national strategic priorities:
- Labour Market Evidence Group (LMEG): Provides detailed labour market data and analysis to help assess workforce shortages and the need for occupation-specific migration.
- Department for Business and Trade (DBT): Particularly its Industrial Strategy arm, identifies occupations critical to achieving the UK’s long-term economic and productivity goals.
- Industrial Strategy Advisory Council (ISAC): Advises on strategic workforce needs and evaluates sectors crucial to delivering the UK Industrial Strategy.
- Resident Labour Market Tests: Ensures that Temporary Shortage List occupations are genuinely in shortage by assessing domestic workforce availability before offering visa access.
- Regulatory Qualification Framework (RQF): Categorises occupations by skill level, helping determine eligibility for work visas under the Temporary Shortage List and other skilled migration routes.
Together, these bodies provide a robust framework for identifying occupations that require temporary migration access, balancing economic needs with migration policy objectives.
Stagewise Assessment of Occupations
The MAC Stage 1 Report outlines a structured two-stage process for determining TSL inclusion:
- Stage 1: Identifying Crucial Occupations
Occupations are assessed for their significance to the Industrial Strategy or critical infrastructure. This stage involves a high-level evaluation of sector needs and the potential impact on national productivity and economic security.
- Stage 2: Detailed Workforce Assessment
Occupations progressing to Stage 2 undergo further evaluation, considering:
- Current or projected shortages in the occupation.
- Feasibility of addressing shortages through migration.
- Sector plans for maximising domestic workforce utilisation and reducing exploitation risks.
This structured methodology ensures that only occupations vital to strategic priorities are included, while providing time-limited support to sectors still developing domestic workforce capacity.
Critical National Infrastructure Sectors
Certain occupations are prioritised due to their role in critical national infrastructure (CNI). The UK recognises thirteen CNI sectors:
- Chemicals, Civil Nuclear, Communications, Defence, Emergency Services
- Energy, Finance, Food, Government, Health
- Space, Transport, Water
The distinction between “infrastructure” and “critical infrastructure” is pivotal. For instance, occupations required to build a nuclear power station are included, whereas roles involved in ongoing operation of a nuclear power plant are excluded.
Duration and Temporary Nature
The Temporary Shortage List’s temporary designation serves multiple purposes:
- It encourages employers to develop domestic talent pipelines rather than rely solely on migrant workers.
- It allows flexibility for sectors to provide robust jobs plans while being assessed for Stage 2 inclusion.
- It limits long-term fiscal obligations associated with permanent settlement.
The “temporary” designation of the TSL reflects the duration of visa eligibility. The MAC stage 1report emphasises that the Temporary Shortage List is an interim measure, with recommendations due for review by December 2026. Occupations that are recommended for Temporary Shortage List may receive visa access for up to three years, though some may initially be offered shorter durations (up to 18 months) to allow sectors to strengthen domestic workforce strategies.
Settlement Considerations
A crucial policy question is whether an occupation on TSL should qualify for a route to settlement or not. The MAC Stage 1 report evaluates the arguments both for and against this provision.
Arguments Against Offering Settlement
- Employer Incentives: Temporary visas encourage employers to invest in domestic workers rather than depend on migrant labour.
- Fiscal Considerations: Limiting long-term settlement reduces welfare obligations and long-term public expenditure.
- Net Migration Control: Restricting settlement supports broader government objectives to reduce overall net migration.
- Occupational Retention: Temporary visas may prevent workforce shifts post-settlement, helping to mitigate skill shortages.
Arguments Supporting Settlement
- Attracting Skilled Workers: Offering settlement options may increase the appeal of Temporary Shortage List roles in globally competitive sectors.
- Business Stability: Permanent employees reduce turnover, strengthen institutional knowledge, and support wage progression.
- Community Integration: Longer-term residency fosters social cohesion and reduces disruption in local communities.
Currently, the MAC notes that multiple political considerations influence this decision, and no firm recommendation on settlement has been made. The government must weigh visa duration against business stability and workforce flexibility, with three-year visas potentially offering a balance between turnover and long-term workforce planning.
Switching and Flexibility in TSL Roles
The TSL framework also considers the potential for visa holders to switch roles or SOC within the Skilled Worker Route. The MAC further promotes in-country switching, reflecting its support for career progression within the same employment route, while also assessing whether individuals on TSL visas should be permitted to move between occupations listed on the TSL. Switching to a higher-skilled role, such as RQF Level 6 or above promotes progression within the migrant’s career and requires compliance with all relevant criteria.
Flexibility within TSL roles is more restricted to ensure that migrants apply their specialist skills in the occupation for which the visa was granted. Certain sectors, particularly those with high levels of self-employment or seasonal work, may face challenges in aligning with direct employer sponsorship. This includes creative occupations such as artists, musicians, and dancers, as well as trades in construction where employment patterns are less predictable.
No cap has been set on the number of visas issued under the TSL. However, fees are expected to discourage excessive reliance on overseas workers, aligning charges with the Skilled Worker route, including the Immigration Skills Charge. Salary discounts for new entrants are not permitted, as the Temporary Shortage List is intended to address short-term shortages rather than act as a pathway for younger workers to enter the labour market.
Occupations Recommended for Stage 2
The MAC Stage 1 report identifies 82 occupations considered potentially crucial to prioritised sectors for progression to Stage 2. These include a range of mid-skilled roles across multiple industries:
- Technicians in laboratory, engineering, IT, and health services
- Design occupations, such as interior designers, clothing and fashion designers, and photographers
- Business and financial associate professionals, including analysts, project support officers, and HR specialists
- Skilled trades in construction, metalwork, electrical work, and vehicle maintenance
- Creative and performing arts roles, including artists, authors, actors, musicians, and dancers
Occupations that have not progressed to Stage 2 include certain vehicle repair roles and lower-skilled administrative positions, where either government advocacy or workforce concentration did not meet the required thresholds. The MAC emphasises that inclusion in Stage 2 does not guarantee final placement on the TSL, as further assessments on shortages, Jobs Plans, and mitigation of exploitation risks are required.
Next Steps and Policy Implications
Stage 2 of the TSL review will focus on engagement with a broader set of stakeholders through a Call for Evidence. Sectors must present ambitious Jobs Plans demonstrating a commitment to domestic workforce utilisation and investment in training. The MAC will continue consulting the Labour Market Evidence Group to evaluate these submissions and finalise recommendations by December 2026. The final TSL will reflect both immediate workforce needs and long-term strategic goals, ensuring that immigration policy supports economic growth while managing migration flows.
The Temporary Shortage List represents a significant evolution in UK immigration policy. By linking visa access to sectoral needs and workforce planning, it aims to balance economic growth, national productivity, and migration control. The interim nature of the list, coupled with stringent evaluation of occupations and sector strategies, underscores the UK government’s commitment to a measured, data-driven approach. The outcomes of the MAC review will have lasting implications for employers, workers, and policymakers, shaping the framework for mid-skilled migration in the coming decade.
Final Thoughts
The UK Temporary Shortage List represents a strategic, evidence-based approach to addressing mid-skilled labour shortages while balancing migration control and industrial priorities. By targeting occupations crucial to economic growth and critical infrastructure, the Temporary Shortage List ensures that temporary migration is used where it is most needed, encourages domestic workforce development, and aligns with long-term national goals. The MAC Stage 1 Report provides clarity on policy intent, processes, and the rationale for each occupation’s consideration, setting the stage for Stage 2 reviews and future immigration policy evolution. As the UK navigates post-pandemic workforce challenges, the TSL will be a pivotal tool for sustainable, targeted migration management.
